This narrative stands out due to the newfound consensus among browsers on the significance of compatibility.
Take, for example, the emphasis on "same markup" in IE9's marketing efforts. This reflects a shift in mindset within the industry.
Furthermore, HTML5 is praised for its robust backward compatibility. Even <input type="number">
displays as a simple text input in IE6, facilitating graceful degradation.
Though some users still cling to outdated browsers, none hold the dominating market share like IE6 did. Additionally, browser upgrade cycles appear to be accelerating compared to the post-IE6 era.
In my opinion, pre-IE9 versions of Internet Explorer are at risk of becoming the new IE6. Chrome's rapid update cycle makes this scenario unlikely. Safari and Opera, while not major players in the browser landscape, also lack the market dominance required to repeat IE6's legacy (mobile browsing excluded). As for Firefox, its seamless upgrades suggest users will swiftly adopt new versions when available.
This leaves us with IE9 lacking XP support, meaning most XP users will stick with IE <= 8 until they switch operating systems.
EDIT: One crucial aspect worth noting is how seriously the HTML5 specification addresses cross-browser compatibility. While it won't magically make Internet Explorer support WebGL or convince Firefox to embrace Web SQL, this focus should help mitigate compatibility issues moving forward.