The primary game-changer here is the rise of HTML5, signaling the end of flash for web videos. Youtube will lead the way in this transition. The highly anticipated IE9, with its support for html5, is set to launch early next year. Once IE9 is adopted by the masses, we can expect a widespread shift towards html5 across all major browsers. This change will also impact the adult entertainment industry, as porn sites will gradually make the switch from flash to html5.
Contrary to popular belief, Adobe is ahead of the curve when it comes to embracing HTML5. Flash CS5 now offers the option to export content to HTML5 canvas, allowing creators of flashy advertisements to seamlessly transition their work to html5-compatible formats.
In essence, both video content and online ads will soon be dominated by html5. It's likely that within the next couple of years, the need for the Flash plug-in will significantly decline, except perhaps for gaming and Rich Internet Applications (RIAs). While Adobe has yet to crack the code on converting actionscript to javascript, once they do, even casual games may see a shift towards html5.
For a glimpse of the promising capabilities of html5, simply visit the link below in any browser other than Internet Explorer: